FOOD SECURITY STUDY IN NORTH KALIMANTAN PROVINCE (CASE STUDY: AVAILABILITY OF RICE IN BULUNGAN DISTRICT)

Abstract

This study aims to answer questions related to the availability of rice in Bulungan District. is the availability of land as an important variable in increasing rice production in Bulungan District. Determining the location in this study was done purposively (purposive). The method of determining the sample in this study was a purposive sampling method with the criteria used to determine the sample for this study were the Bulungan Regency Agriculture Service, the Bulungan Regency Population and Civil Registry Service, the Food Security Service which has the data archives needed by researchers. Collecting data in this study is by interview and documentation. The data analysis used is a system dynamics approach to the causal loop diagram (cld) model and stock flow diagram (sfd) with Ventana system (Vensim) PLE 9.3.4x64 software. The results of the study show that the factor that influences the availability of rice is the population, where the population from 2022-2052 will increase significantly with an average increase of 2%. Rice production of rice from 2022-2052 has decreased by an average of 2.1%, a policy of simulating the availability of rice in Bulungan Regency has been carried out with a scenario of increasing the rice field production rate by 5%. However, rice consumption is not sufficient in 2022, 2024-2025, 2029, 2031-2035, 2039-2041, 2045 and 2050. In 2022 the availability of rice is 8,075.15 tons and rice consumption is 8,075.16 tons so that people still lack 100 kg of rice, so also happened in the following years. When carrying out a combined scenario of rice availability in Bulungan Regency with an increase in the rice field printing rate of 5% and 10% rice field productivity, it will be sufficient for the rice consumption of the people of Bulungan Regency from 2022 to 2052.